Kalshi Beating DraftKings Pricing on Some NFL Games, Says Bear Cave
Prediction markets giant Kalshi is making some progress on NFL pricing, which might pose a challenge for DraftKings (NASDAQ: DKNG) and other conventional sportsbook operators.
The editor and creator of The Bear Cave newsletter, Edwin Dorsey, reported on Tuesday that he paid $49.95 for 115 "yes" contracts on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on "Monday Night Football" at a rate of 43 cents each, plus a 50-cent fee to Kalshi. Additionally, he wagered $50 on Tampa Bay on DraftKings. Dorsey received $107 from DraftKings and $115 from Kalshi after the Bucs won. Additionally, he contrasted the costs of all of this Sunday's NFL games on the two platforms.
"On Tuesday evening, The Bear Cave reviewed prices for all upcoming Sunday NFL games and found in many cases Kalshi offered better odds than DraftKings. For example, for the Kansas City Chiefs at New York Giants, DraftKings will pay $157.50 for a $50 bet on the underdog Giants, while the Kalshi market offers $170, after fees, for the same bet,” observes The Bear Cave Editor.
A pricing comparison of DraftKings and Kalshi odds on Sunday’s Kansas City Chiefs/New York Giants game.
Dorsey does not take positions in the companies listed in his newsletter, nor is he a short seller. Although the report comparing DraftKings and Kalshi didn't specifically criticize the sportsbook operator, it did point out that the derivatives exchange's entry into football parlays and player propositions might worry DraftKings because those are lucrative bets for gaming companies.
Kalshi Is Advancing NFL Pricing
Dorsey said he conducted the DraftKings/Kalshi comparison based on the odds the former was providing in New York City in a quick email discussion with Casino.org. This is significant since New York has the biggest sports betting market in the United States.
Dorsey was asked by Casino.org if his analysis was limited to underdogs because "chalk" was not included in the example games cited in the report. He noted that, on a "anecdotal" basis, Kalshi is also offering more favorable pricing on favorites, which is significant because the majority of retail bettors favor favorites over dogs.
The Bear Cave study is noteworthy for another reason: it was released ten days after a sell-side expert revealed that DraftKings and FanDuel provided clients with better prices than Kalshi during NFL Week One. In other words, Kalshi is quickly enhancing its NFL pricing, which will let it to compete more effectively with competing sportsbooks.
“The Bear Cave expects Kalshi’s value proposition to improve over time because its transaction fees may come down as the platform matures and the platform is actively exploring sub-penny pricing, which will allow for even smaller bid-ask spreads,” said Dorsey in the report.
There is yet hope for DraftKings
Although there is evidence that the first two weeks of the 2025 NFL season have not been kind to sportsbook operators, DraftKings and others are still reputable, if not better, competitors to Kalshi and other sites. Football is the largest wagered sport in the United States.
In his research of 14 NFL games on Sunday, September 21, Dorsey notes that Kalshi has a pricing advantage in eight of those tilts, while DraftKings has a pricing lead in six. Additionally, he admitted that a recent readymade NFL parlay that Kalshi created only brought in $12K in trading volume.
"The issue with parlays on prediction markets is that they require the counterparty to put up large amounts of capital for relatively small payouts,” he notes.
Kalshi has recently under criticism for charging fees to clients with lower stakes while permitting "whales" and professional investors to trade on the platform for free. Additionally, there are rumors that the company's market-making division is trading against retail clients, which might make it more difficult for those market players to succeed.
